Has Detroit Tigers closer Gregory Soto actually gotten…better?

Throughout Detroit sports history, the closer for the Detroit Tigers has always been a tough plain to navigate. Just as with the goalie for the Red Wings, or the quarterback for the Lions, when fans see a Tigers closer struggle at all they immediately start calling for change.

In the case of left-hander Gregory Soto, it fits the narratives of closers past. Jose Valverde, Todd Jones and Guillermo Hernandez all dealt with levels of scrutiny. Valverde, while converting all 49 of his save opportunities in 2011, would still get negative comments about his level of excitement after he closed out a game, or complaints about his performance in non-save situations.

Hernandez was an All-Star in 1986, but he had a bad August, and after being the automatic choice to be closer, by September, he had been moved to the stopper role. He was 21-for-26 in save opportunities, but he allowed 13 home runs in 81 innings of work. The stats showed a decline in effectiveness, and by 1987 his role was reduced even more.

Todd Jones’s nickname was the “Roller Coaster” but he remains the all-time leader in Tigers history in saves at 235. He averaged around a 86% save conversion rate throughout his career in Detroit. Both Jones and Hernandez pitched in two completely different eras. So that’s where the comparison stops.

The numbers are there for Soto

Soto’s strikeout numbers this season are among the lowest for Tigers relievers. He is fourth in K per 9 with 9.31 and K% is at 24.2%. Last season he finished with a 10.74 K per 9 and 27.5% K rate.

So that’s a legit gripe. But some numbers have gotten better for Soto. Even with his three-walk meltdown on Sunday, he is walking batters at a career-low rate of 4.42 per 9. That continues a drop from 2020 where his walk rate was 5.65 per 9. His FIP (3.40) is slightly higher than his ERA (3.26), but it is still the lowest of his career.

But manager A.J. Hinch probably only really cares about one number, and that is Gregory Soto’s save percentage. How often does he close out wins when he is called on to do so?

Query Results Table
Rk	Player	SV% ▼	SV	Age	Team	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/BB	IR	IS	IS%	BSv	SV%	GF	GR	Pos
1	Josh Hader	93.5	29	28	MIL,SDP	NL	2	4	.333	4.00	39	29	36.0	27	16	16	7	12	0	62	1	0	4	148	102	3.28	1.083	6.8	1.8	3.0	15.5	5.17	4	0	0	2	93.5	36	39
2	Emmanuel Clase	92.3	24	24	CLE	AL	2	2	.500	1.36	48	24	46.1	26	10	7	2	6	1	48	0	0	3	171	286	1.99	0.691	5.1	0.4	1.2	9.3	8.00	1	0	0	2	92.3	43	48
3	Daniel Bard	92.0	23	37	COL	NL	3	3	.500	1.99	40	23	40.2	23	11	9	3	19	1	45	2	0	2	168	232	3.41	1.033	5.1	0.7	4.2	10.0	2.37	2	0	0	2	92.0	32	40	1
4	Gregory Soto	90.9	20	27	DET	AL	2	6	.250	3.26	40	20	38.2	28	20	14	1	19	0	40	7	0	1	165	122	3.40	1.216	6.5	0.2	4.4	9.3	2.11	9	2	22	2	90.9	34	40
5	Edwin Díaz	89.7	26	28	NYM	NL	2	1	.667	1.39	45	26	45.1	27	7	7	3	12	1	91	1	0	2	172	288	0.82	0.860	5.4	0.6	2.4	18.1	7.58	6	2	33	3	89.7	38	45	1
6	Camilo Doval	88.2	15	24	SFG	NL	3	5	.375	2.93	47	15	46.0	37	21	15	4	19	1	58	2	0	3	195	139	3.09	1.217	7.2	0.8	3.7	11.3	3.05	13	5	38	2	88.2	35	47
7	Liam Hendriks	88.0	22	33	CHW	AL	2	3	.400	3.11	37	22	37.2	30	15	13	5	9	1	56	1	0	5	153	129	2.66	1.035	7.2	1.2	2.2	13.4	6.22	7	4	57	3	88.0	33	37	1
8	Craig Kimbrel	87.0	20	34	LAD	NL	3	4	.429	4.15	41	20	39.0	41	21	18	1	17	1	54	2	1	6	177	99	2.14	1.487	9.5	0.2	3.9	12.5	3.18	3	1	33	3	87.0	35	41
9	Jordan Romano	86.2	25	29	TOR	AL	4	3	.571	2.59	42	25	41.2	30	15	12	4	14	1	46	2	0	0	169	153	3.30	1.056	6.5	0.9	3.0	9.9	3.29	7	1	14	4	86.2	37	42
10	Kenley Jansen	85.7	24	34	ATL	NL	5	0	1.000	3.57	40	24	40.1	29	17	16	5	11	1	55	0	0	0	160	118	2.81	0.992	6.5	1.1	2.5	12.3	5.00	4	3	75	4	85.7	33	40
11	Scott Barlow	85.0	17	29	KCR	AL	4	4	.500	2.22	48	17	52.2	42	18	13	6	15	1	50	3	0	3	211	186	3.72	1.082	7.2	1.0	2.6	8.5	3.33	27	11	41	3	85.0	31	48	1
12	Raisel Iglesias	84.2	16	32	ATL,LAA	AL,NL	2	6	.250	3.82	41	16	37.2	30	18	16	5	9	1	51	2	0	3	153	107	3.00	1.035	7.2	1.2	2.2	12.2	5.67	14	8	57	3	84.2	33	41
13	Ryan Pressly	84.0	21	33	HOU	AL	3	3	.500	3.09	33	21	32.0	22	12	11	2	9	0	38	0	0	0	122	126	2.39	0.969	6.2	0.6	2.5	10.7	4.22	2	1	50	4	84.0	30	33
14	Mark Melancon	83.3	15	37	ARI	NL	3	10	.231	4.54	42	15	37.2	46	27	19	2	15	2	27	1	0	4	172	89	3.64	1.619	11.0	0.5	3.6	6.5	1.80	2	0	0	3	83.3	35	42	1
15	David Bednar	81.0	17	27	PIT	NL	3	4	.429	2.70	40	17	46.2	36	18	14	4	14	2	63	1	1	2	188	156	2.49	1.071	6.9	0.8	2.7	12.2	4.50	8	1	13	4	81.0	32	40	1
16	Clay Holmes	81.0	17	29	NYY	AL	5	3	.625	2.27	47	17	47.2	33	13	12	1	14	2	51	7	0	1	195	170	2.57	0.986	6.2	0.2	2.6	9.6	3.64	17	3	18	4	81.0	24	47
17	Jorge López	80.0	20	29	BAL,MIN	AL	4	6	.400	1.75	47	20	51.1	33	16	10	3	18	1	57	4	2	2	209	232	2.94	0.994	5.8	0.5	3.2	10.0	3.17	16	2	13	5	80.0	37	47	1
18	Taylor Rogers	80.0	28	31	MIL,SDP	NL	1	5	.167	4.36	44	28	43.1	39	23	21	1	10	1	51	8	0	1	183	88	2.30	1.131	8.1	0.2	2.1	10.6	5.10	11	3	27	7	80.0	35	44	1
19	Tanner Scott	78.9	15	27	MIA	NL	4	4	.500	4.23	47	15	44.2	33	25	21	3	30	0	64	3	0	2	199	97	3.33	1.410	6.6	0.6	6.0	12.9	2.13	3	2	67	4	78.9	27	47	1
20	David Robertson	75.0	15	37	CHC,PHI	NL	3	0	1.000	2.13	38	15	42.1	24	10	10	4	20	0	54	3	0	2	173	198	3.42	1.039	5.1	0.9	4.3	11.5	2.70	9	1	11	5	75.0	24	38	1

Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 8/9/2022.

It may not always be dominant or pretty, but Soto gets the job done. Last season Soto converted 94.7% of his save opportunities, with just one blown save in 19 chances. This year he is converting 90.9% of his opportunities, which is the fourth best rate in baseball. Only Josh Hader, Daniel Bard, and Emmanuel Clase have been more effective closers.

Michael Fulmer, in contrast, converted saves at a 77.8% clip last season, and this year he was just 2-for-6 in save opportunities before he was traded to Minnesota.

For Tigers fans, the grass is always greener on the other side of the mound. Their frustrations with Gregory Soto are more about the role than the player. Soto has been an excellent closer for the Tigers. But mere excellence somehow isn’t enough when unrealistic fans expect perfection.

4 Comments

Darren August 28, 2022 at 10:04 pm - Reply

You are a moron , MEVER WRITE ANOTHER ARTICLE. SOTO SUCKS AT CLOSING JUST LIKE YOUR WRITING
- Rogelio Castillo August 28, 2022 at 10:06 pm - Reply
  
  Thanks for reading!
Darren August 28, 2022 at 10:05 pm - Reply

You should never write another column . SOTO is pathetic . Your writing is worse.
Rogelio Castillo August 28, 2022 at 10:19 pm - Reply

Not sure what numbers you are seeing but thanks again for reading a piece I wrote while the dude was melting down in the 9th. Good time to voice that take.