Rolling into week 11 of the NFL, I am bringing you all of my favorite bets and player props from all of the games on the schedule today. Diving in to all of the stuff you don’t want to research like stats, data, and different trends. As we start to get closer towards the end of the year, matchups will get closer and there are going to be a lot more injuries, so finding the right player props and picking the right side of a game will get tougher. No big deal. I will still bring you a few winners.
Last week, my picks went 7-5 and hit a +593 Parlay for you all. Sitting right around .500, and we are looking to get build on last week. Now, through week 10 I am 34-31-1 in all my NFL picks. This week, there are a handful of big matchups, especially in the AFC. Of course, the Detroit Lions are on the road to vs. the New York Giants. But some other big matchups I will have plays for are Browns vs. Bills, Cowboys vs. Vikings, and Chiefs @ Chargers. All the game picks and player props are all straight bets, and at the bottom I have my parlay for today. Let’s get started, here are my picks for NFL week 11:
Browns +8 (vs. Bills)
I was stuck in between leaving this game out of my list all together with them having to play in Detroit. But, this game now actually benefits the Cleveland Browns. Originally they were having to go play at a tough environment out in Buffalo, but now they only have to travel a little north to Detroit. The whole Bills team seemed to have trouble even getting to Detroit in the snow storm that they had. The Browns have struggled so far this season but they have shown signs of how good they can really be, and with the Bills coming off tow straight losses I think its a perfect game for them to keep it close.
Commanders -3 (@ Texans)
This isn’t even close to the best game on the NFL schedule today, but I still really love this play. The Commanders have looked like a complete different team with Taylor Heinicke in and even without him they haven’t looked that bad winning 4 of their last 5 games. Now, coming of f win vs. what was the best team in football the Eagles, now they turn it around and will play the worst team in football.
Lions +3 (@ Giants)
Alright, the game of the day for us here in Detroit. Outside of being a Detroit Lions fans, I can tell you this is not a homer pick. The Detroit Lions are 5-4 ATS this season so far and have covered and won there last two games. Even if the Lions can’t find a way to win this game, they’re still going to keep this game within distance. Yes, the Giants are 7-2 but they aren’t the best 7-2 team out there. They only average 20 PPG so far this season while the Lions are averaging 24 PPG. We have all seen what the Lions can do at full health, and it seems like they will be at full health today.
Chargers +5 (vs. Chiefs)
You probably hate this play. The public and the whole world right now is betting on the Chiefs side here. If you have taken any of my bets you know I love to fade the public, and we have made a lot of money doing so. That’s what I am going to do for the SNF game. The Chiefs are probably the best team in the NFL right now, and the Chargers are going through a handful of injuries. But, catching the Chargers team at home getting 5 points is a steal even with injuries. As I am typing this Mike Williams is suppose to be playing and Herbert hopefully is more healed up. This will be a shootout down to the end.
Browns/Bills Over 50
This game may end up going over 60 points in Ford Field. Before they found out they were coming to Detroit, Vegas had this total set at 42 points, thinking they’re playing in 4 feet of snow. That seemed like an extremely high number in those conditions. Now, in Detroit, the total is at 50 and we really just need 1 more touchdown. The Browns have been the best team in the league on their overs all year and we know exactly what this Bills team can do.
I hate playing unders, and I will say that week after week. But, when I see a guaranteed winner, I have to give it out. This game is going to be ugly. I have said all season long, that the Broncos bring other teams down to their competition with their defense. The biggest stats of the day for this game is the Broncos average 14 PPG and only give up 16 PPG. Vegas set this line too low. Hammer Play under.
I think this is the easiest bet of the day. We all know what these two offenses are capable of and what they have done the last few weeks. Both of these teams had 60+ points in their games last week, and I see a similar game flow today. A shootout with Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins.
Alright, second play of the day on this game and don’t be surprised if I hand out a player prop in this SNF game. Once again, I looked at all of the numbers, and it looks like there might be some sharp money on the over. These two teams have played a there last few games way under. Like I said above, this game is going to end up being a shootout down to the last possession.
Justin Fields (CHI) o69.5 Rush Yards
Nick Chubb o73.5 Rush Yards
Daniel Jones o35.5 Rush Yards
Tyler Boyd o53.5 Rec Yards
Marquez Valdes-Scantling o45.5 Rec Yards
Kenyan Drake -103
Justin Fields -152
D’Andre Swift +125
Miles Sanders -124
Travis Kelce -155
Saquon Barkley o98.5 Rush Yards
Justin Fields o69.5 Rushing Yards
Bears/Falcons o40.5 points (alt. line)
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