NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 9

Week 9 of the NFL and I am back with all of my favorite best bets and some player props that I will be playing today. I am doing the dirty work and diving into all the data and analytics to try and find the best plays for the full slate of games today, so you don’t have to.

Last week, my picks went  6-7. Under .500, but we are still sitting positive units on the season. Sitting at 22-21 on the season, just a few wins over .500 now. We have a decent slate of games for today, with a handful of teams on a bye week.  All the game picks and player props are all straight bets, and at the bottom I have my parlay for today. Let’s get started, here are my picks for NFL week 9:

GAME PICKS:

Dolphins -4 (@Bears)

While everyone is starting to trend upwards with his Chicago Bears I am going to fade them. I am a firm believer that this Dolphins team with Tua is one of the best teams in the league. The Bears secondary hasn’t been that bad the last few weeks, but they seen a WR room like Hill and Waddle probably all season long.

Vikings -3 (@Commanders)

Like every week I do this, I have to throw the Vikings on the list if Kirk Cousins is playing in the 1:00 pm slot. Ya, it is a funny running joke around the league, but it might be the truest joke there is. The Vikings are playing there best football right now, and on the other side you can argue the Commanders are as well coming off 3 straight wins (2 NFC north wins). This week is when the Commanders streak comes to an end tho. They are giving up 230+ passing yards per game and are going to have trouble covering Justin Jefferson and Adam Theilen.

Titans +12.5 (@Chiefs)

Come over to the dark side with me and fade the Chiefs every week. A 12.5 point favorite is just insane to me, especially against a 5-2 Titans team who has won 5 straight. Yes, Tannehill is questionable, but how often do we really see double digit dawgs in the NFL that are 5-2. Derrick Henry is starting to get into form at this point of the season and there is no slowing down. Give me the Titans to keep it close.

TOTALS:

Raiders/Jaguars Over 48

I have started leaving the Raiders off of my betting slips when betting spreads. But that isn’t stopping me from hammering there overs. They are sitting at 4-2-1 in overs so far this season. It’s not only because they can put up a ton of points, but they are giving up over 24 PPG right now. On the other side, the Jaguars are giving up around 20 PPG as well. This game is going to turn into a shootout and we might see to 30 pieces get put up here.

Packers/Lions Under 49.5

Listen, the Lions are the best over team in the NFL at 5-2. This week won’t be the same tho. At home vs. a Division opponent with Green Bay team that has struggled on offense all season long. The last 4 Packers games have been under 50 points with their offense just continuing to struggle. I am looking at a 24-17 game here in Detroit.

Rams/Buccaneers Under 42.5

This might look like the worst bet of all time, with Stafford and Brady going against each other and should be to elite offenses. But, this actually might be the easiest bet of the day. These teams are combined 4-11 on the over in there games so far this season. Both offenses have struggled all year long, and their defenses have had to keep them in the game.

Chargers/Falcons Over 49.5

Similar to the Raiders/Jags game. This game is two struggling defenses that give up 27 PPG and 25 PPG. The last 3 weeks the Falcons have put some pressure on their opponents and make them have to play in a shootout to win the game. This is the perfect game for that. Even with all the weapons out for the Chargers they still will find a way to put up 30 + points on this Falcons team.

PLAYER PROPS:

Justin Fields (CHI)  o51.5 Rush Yards

Tee Higgins (CIN) o76.5 Receiving Yards

Deon Jackson (IND) o21.5 Receiving Yards

Kirk Cousins (MIN) o21.5 Pass Completions

ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN:

Josh Jacobs -121

Aaron Jones -159

Derrick Henry -114

NFL PARLAY:

Jared Goff o0.5 INT

Aaron Jones o68.5 Rush Yards

Josh Jacobs o78.5 Rush Yards

Tyreek Hill o90.5 Rec Yards

Parlay +1036

Photo Credit: © Junfu Han-USA TODAY Sports

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