NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 7

Week 7 of the NFL and I am back with all of my favorite best bets and some player props that I will be playing today. I am doing the dirty work and diving into all of the data and analytics to try and find the best plays for the full slate of games today, so you don’t have to.

If you backed me last week, we went 8-7 on our straight bets and lost the parlay that I gave out. This week, has a really weird slate of games in the NFL, with really not that many big time matchups that we have been getting. I still have a good amount of plays that you can play. We are looking to push the overall record even further past 50%. As always, be sure to always bet responsibly, and here are my Week 7 best bets:

GAME PICKS:

Falcons +6.5 (@Bengals)

I know you all are questioning why I am backing the Falcons in this spot vs the Bengals. But, this Falcons team is 6-0 against the spread this season, which is the best in the NFL. This team has been a gamblers dream. Just not the best football team, but you know they’re going to just score points and stick around all game. Atlanta being undefeated against the spread won’t last all year, but while the train is going, why not be a part of it.

Lions +7 (@Cowboys)

Another play a lot of people reading might be questioning. Especially being a Detroit Lions fans, it’s hard to trust them right now, especially coming off of a massive loss to the Patriots. But, if we have seen anything out of the Lions team outside the game vs. the Pats, it is that they will stay in games even when they probably shouldn’t be. With Jared Goff getting back Swift and Amon Ra now being fully healthy, this offense will be running on all cylinders vs. and elite Cowboys defense. Give me the Lions with the points in this game, they keep it within a touchdown.

Titans -2.5 (vs. Colts)

This seems to be the trendy pick of the day. I hate being on the public’s side and taking the obvious play, but that’s exactly what I have to do here. The Titans went into Indianapolis a few weeks ago and beat this Colts team 24-17. Now, they have the opportunity to play them at home and get a season sweep. This Titans team is finally getting into their stride with 3 straight wins after starting 0-2, and they seem like they’re just getting started. I will take the Titans at home in this game by a field goal.

Texans +7 (@Raiders)

Another dawg play that I am giving out. This Texans team is another one of these young teams we have been seeing around the league that just loves to compete. Both of these teams have played almost every game this season really close, and down to the wire. Especially against this Raiders team, who has let every single opponent stay in the game, and haven’t been able to pull out many wins. I do believe the Raiders take this game, but I still think getting a touchdown with the Texans is a steal.

Steelers +7.5 (@Dolphins)

The Sunday night Football play. I wanted to give out a play for SNF, so we can all bet on the prime-time game. After a scary injury a few weeks ago, we will see the Dolphins QB Tua back in action. On the other side, Kenny Pickett, who was out last week, will be playing as well. Now, the Dolphins are coming off of 3 straight losses and the Steelers are coming off maybe their biggest win so far this season vs. the Bucs. I really do believe that the Steelers are going to give this Dolphins team a bit of trouble. Outside of their 38-3 loss to the Bills this season, they have competed and have been in every game. They will find a way to score, and their defense will step up vs. a struggling Dolphins team.

 

TOTALS:

Falcons/Bengals o47

I gave out the Falcons +6.5 above, and I absolutely love the over in this game. The Falcons are scoring around 24 PPG and giving up over 22 PPG this season. The Bengals are looking to build off their momentum after putting up 30 points last week vs. the Saints. This game will be very similar to that last weekend, Bengals will score over 30 points while the Falcons keep up to cover the spread.

Lions/Cowboys o48.5

Alright, everyone might think I am crazy for taking this over with the Cowboys defense. But there are a few things that really pushed me to take this. Like I mentioned above with the Lions, they get back a healthy Swift and Amon Ra is now fully healthy. They are averaging 28 PPG this season so far, and that is factored in the 0 they had last week in New England. When this offense is healthy and at full speed, they can put up points with the best of them.

Buccaneers/Panthers u39.5

This is a scary play, going against Tom Brady and that offense, which I believe can get hot any game now. But, this Bucs team has only had a game go over 40 points 1 time this season. On the other side with the Panthers, we all know they traded away their best player, CMC. After that move, I don’t see this Panthers team being able to score more than 10 points vs. this Bucs defense that only gives up 17ppg on the season.

Colts/Titans u41.5

Another double play game that I am giving out for todays NFL Slate. This could be dangerous doubling up, but I have loved taking Colts unders this season. Like I mentioned above, these two teams played a few games back and the total was right on at 41 points. This line is set right where it should be, but I do believe this is going to be a ground game. Jonathon Taylor vs. Derrick Henry.

PLAYER PROPS:

Caleb Huntley (ATL)  o37.5 Rush Yards

Tony Pollard (DAL)  o35.5 Rush Yards

Aaron Rodgers (GB)  o21.5 Completions

Nico Collins (HOU)  o39.5 Rec. Yards

Breece Hall (NYJ)  o15.5 Rush Attps.

Kenny Pickett (PIT)  o20.5 Completions

 

ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN:

Mark Andrews -104

Jonathan Taylor -113

Saquon Barkley -155

Amon-Ra St. Brown +128

Tyreek Hill -104

All Straight Bets – Parlay +2659

 

NFL PARLAY:

Nick Chubb o74.5 Rush Yards

Antonio Gibson o11.5 Rec. Yards

Alec Pierce o43.5 Rec. Yards

Leonard Fournette o29.5 Rec. Yards

Parlay +1162

 

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Photo Credit: © Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports